Abstract
Abstract. We revisit the issue of the response of precipitation characteristics to global warming based on analyses of global and regional climate model projections for the 21st century. The prevailing response we identify can be summarized as follows: increase in the intensity of precipitation events and extremes, with the occurrence of events of “unprecedented” magnitude, i.e., a magnitude not found in the present-day climate; decrease in the number of light precipitation events and in wet spell lengths; and increase in the number of dry days and dry spell lengths. This response, which is mostly consistent across the models we analyzed, is tied to the difference between precipitation intensity responding to increases in local humidity conditions and circulations, especially for heavy and extreme events, and mean precipitation responding to slower increases in global evaporation. These changes in hydroclimatic characteristics have multiple and important impacts on the Earth's hydrologic cycle and on a variety of sectors. As examples we investigate effects on potential stress due to increases in dry and wet extremes, changes in precipitation interannual variability, and changes in the potential predictability of precipitation events. We also stress how the understanding of the hydroclimatic response to global warming can provide important insights into the fundamental behavior of precipitation processes, most noticeably tropical convection.
Highlights
One of the greatest concerns regarding the effects of climate change on human societies and natural ecosystems is the response of the Earth’s hydrologic cycle to global warming
By affecting the surface energy budget, warming induced by greenhouse gas (GHG), along with related feedback processes, can profoundly affect the Earth’s water cycle (e.g., Trenberth et al, 2003; Held and Soden, 2006; Trenberth, 2011; IPCC, 2012)
The interannual variability of precipitation is a key factor affecting many aspects of agriculture and water resources, and it is strongly affected by global modes of variability, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropics and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in midlatitudes
Summary
One of the greatest concerns regarding the effects of climate change on human societies and natural ecosystems is the response of the Earth’s hydrologic cycle to global warming. Water precipitating over land can either reevaporate or flow into the oceans through surface runoff or subsurface flow Given this picture of the hydrologic cycle, it is important to stress that, evaporation and precipitation globally balance out, their underlying processes are very different. Each of these cases would have a very different impact on societal sectors or ecosystem dynamics This consideration implies that the impact of global warming on the Earth’s hydroclimate might manifest itself as a change in mean precipitation and, perhaps more markedly, as variations in the characteristics and regimes of precipitation events. After having identified the dominant hydroclimatic responses, we discuss examples of their impact on different quantities of relevance for socioeconomic impacts, the potential stress associated with changes in dry and wet extreme events, precipitation interannual variability, and the predictability of precipitation events
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