Abstract
The dynamic changes in land use/cover (LULC) significantly influence carbon storage, and assessing the vulnerability of carbon storage services in different basins is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of human activities on ecosystems. The objective of this study is to propose a framework for optimizing LULC, simulating carbon storage, and assessing vulnerability by integrating the MOP, PLUS, and InVEST models. The results show that forests play a crucial role in enhancing carbon storage services in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). Carbon storage in the upper reaches of the YRB is on the rise, counteracting the decrease in carbon storage caused by the expansion of built-up land. However, in the middle and lower reaches of the YRB, LULC has a negative impact on ecosystem carbon storage services. Under natural development scenarios, carbon storage is projected to decrease by 68.84 × 106 tons, leading to increased vulnerability of ecosystem carbon storage services. Under the scenario of ecological and economic balance, carbon storage is expected to increase by 97 × 106 tons. In the future, while restricting built-up land expansion, emphasis should be placed on expanding forest areas to more effectively enhance ecosystem services in basins.
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