The Resilience of Russia's Regions in the Conditions of Recovery Growth: Bouncing Forward or Bouncing Back?

Abstract

The recovery growth of regional economies after shocks can be expressed both in a return to the initial state and in a new development trajectory. Many researchers associate the direction of the movement caused by the shock with sectoral transformations, considering structural proportions in the economy as the main factor in regional resilience. This study aims to analyze the recovery growth trajectory of Russian regions in the post-pandemic period, as well as to find out whether shifts in the sectoral structure of their economies have affected it. The hypothesis of the study was the assumption that the vector of regional development is determined by the changes in the sectoral structure of the region that occurred during the crisis. Research methods included: analysis of the deviations of the actual values of GRP and employment indicators from their possible values, defined as a continuation of the trend of economic development in the pre-shock period; comparison of changes in the indicators of the economic development of regions with changes in the growth rates of individual sectors of the economy: industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade and services. The results of the study showed significant differences in the speed and nature of recovery processes in Russia's regions. The vast majority of regions returned to the pre-shock trajectory of development. At the same time, some regions could not cope with the shocks of the corona crisis and saw their socio-economic situation worsen, while some showed a “leap forward” with higher development indicators. The author comes to the following conclusions: 1) sectoral transformations of the regional economy during the crisis are not decisive in determining the trajectory of the recovery movement and a “favorable” change in the sectoral structure can be neutralized by the influence of other factors; 2) the high vulnerability of the region's economy and its individual industries to shock events does not mean a longer period of recovery growth. From a practical point of view, this is important for understanding what aspects of sustainability may be relevant for the post-crisis recovery of the regional economy. The theoretical significance of the study is expressed in the expansion of ideas about the factors of regional resilience.