The research on the space-time coherence of xianshuihe fault zone in the process of seismogeny

Abstract

In this paper, a kind of data analysis method is used to research the space-time coherence of Xianshuihe fault zone in the process of seimogeny. It is proved that, the space-time coherence of Xianshuihe fault zone, in the process of seismogeny, really exists. The greater the earthquake magnitude of a fault section, the greater is its influence on the "neighboring" sections. To a strike fault zone which bears compressive stress, the fault sections are "series connected". That is to say, once an earthquake happens on a fault section, the time of seismogeny in the neighboring fault sections will be shortened, therefore, this earthquake has "an effect of hastening the occurrence of earthquakes in neighboring fault sections". It is an inevitable rule for the Xianshuihe fault zone that the earthquake-quiescent period and the earthquake-active period occur alternatively. To the Xianshuihe fault zone, the slip-predictable model does not tally with the actual situation, while the improved time-predictable model tallies with the fact quite well. The data analysis method used here, which is used to examine the earthquake prediction models, is put forward on the basis of historical earthquake records. This kind of method and the relative conclusions have important reference value on the establishment of earthquake prediction models.