Abstract
Using a dynamical model for nutrient cycling in shallow lakes, the approach of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) was adopted to investigate the instability and the sensitivity of the lake ecosystem to finite-amplitude perturbations both related to the initial condition and the parameter. The results show that the ecosystem can be transformed from an oligotrophic (eutrophic) state to an eutrophic (oligotrophic) state with a CNOP as the perturbation, no matter how large the nutrient loading rate is. Above all, with the same restraints related to the initial perturbation and the parameter perturbation, CNOP has the largest effect on the lake ecosystem, which may be helpful to govern the lake ecosystem.
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