The Research On Statistical Identification of Critical Infrastructure Chain Failure Paths

Abstract

Using literature studies, case studies, empirical induction and statistical identification, we proposed an analytical framework based on empirical induction to identify and analyze chain failure problems among interdependent critical infrastructures. A case database of critical infrastructure chain failures was established, and as the research emphasis the identification method of critical infrastructure chain failure paths was constructed and designed. The chain failure paths of the critical infrastructure and its sub-networks in China and other countries and regions were discussed. Logical relationships of critical infrastructure chain failures were extracted from the established database covering 229 critical infrastructure chain failure cases. Statistics, identification, and analysis of data were conducted to form a quantitative assessment and understanding of the vulnerability of interdependent critical infrastructure networks. Finally, identification methods and probabilistic statistical methods for chain failure paths of critical infrastructure were designed and applied to the case base of this paper. Using this approach, fatal and severe failure paths of critical infrastructure can be identified and the efficiency of the relevant authorities' inspection work will be improved under cost constraints.