The research on modeling and application of dynamic grey forecasting model based on energy price-energy consumption-economic growth

Abstract

The unbalanced development among energy price, energy consumption, and economic growth will destroy the stability of the energy market. The nonlinear differential equations among several factors are established based on the actual situation of energy market changes and the causal relationship between energy price and economic growth in an economic stage and discuss the relationship among the factors. The nonlinear grey prediction model group of energy price-energy consumption-economic growth is established by using grey difference information. The least-square method is utilized to give the parameter estimation formula of the prediction model group, and the approximate time response formula of the model is obtained by recursive relation transformation. Finally, the new models are applied to the prediction of coal price and coal consumption in China, and the effectiveness of the two models analyzes the same data set. It shows that the prediction results of coal price and coal consumption are better than the other three classical grey prediction models, and it can effectively predict the coal price and consumption in China from 2021 to 2025. The prediction results can provide adequate information for China's energy system and have theoretical and practical significance for the stability of the energy system.