Abstract
With the increase and extension of urban rail transit lines, networked operation has become an inevitable trend of rail transit operations. Once an emergency occurs, it will cause operational delays; in serious cases, it may further lead to group safety incidents. Firstly, the sudden failure of rail transit is defined, statistical calculation is made according to the accumulated failure data, and then the sudden failures and average processing time are quantitatively calculated. Secondly, the time delay and propagation under the state of sudden failure are analyzed, on the basis of which the propagation and dissipation of time delay based on the single station failure cellular automata model and SIR model network based on multistation fault delay propagation are constructed. Finally, the reliability and accuracy of the model are verified by a case of rail transit in a city. The scheme in this paper can be used to estimate the scope of time and space delay under the sudden failure of rail transit and can provide the basis for the adjustment of traffic organization scheme and evacuation of passenger flow under the sudden failure.
Highlights
Urban rail transit network operation involves many types of facilities and equipment, strong interaction, and strong linkage effects between stations and lines
Once an operation accident occurs, the train operation delay will affect the entire network. e delayed line reduces its passing capacity and causes some passengers to change the travel route, which increases the probability of delays due to oversaturation of passenger flow on other lines, causing the delay to spread rapidly. e network operation of urban rail transit effectively improves the service level and resource utilization, and the network scale effect attracts more passenger flow, but, at the same time, the network operation increases the difficulty of management and increases the operation load. ere are many kinds of facilities and equipment in urban rail transit network, which have wide mutual influence. e linkage effect between stations and lines is strong
After the metro network is put into operation, the delay propagation and ripple effect will be more obvious. erefore, it is necessary to study the quantitative analysis method of train operation delay and its propagation range based on the characteristics of different faults, so as to guide the operation units to do a good job in prevention and emergency treatment in time and minimize the impact of delay
Summary
Urban rail transit network operation involves many types of facilities and equipment, strong interaction, and strong linkage effects between stations and lines. Some scholars at home and abroad have done relevant research on the law of the propagation of fault delays and the influence of passenger flow: Zhang et al [1] used cellular automata to establish the evolution rules of the local interaction of passenger flow and quantitatively analyzed the rail transit network layer under the large commuter flow. Domestic and foreign research on the propagation of rail transit delays mainly focuses on sudden large passenger flows or commuting large passenger flows under single-line conditions and rarely considers the impact of the following train operation delays on the network under sudden failure conditions. The feasibility and accuracy of the model are verified by the simulation analysis of a certain urban rail transit network
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