Abstract
With the rapid development of social economy, China has sped up urbanization and motorization, as thus the intercity rail transport has become an important means to solve the traffic inconvenience. Traffic distribution forecasting is the second stage of Four-Stage Predict Method. To make the trip distribution forecasting fully reflect the impact of socioeconomic and land use, this paper builds a generalized cost calculation model by fitting the areas based on cluster analysis, and the generalized cost is applied to Gravity Model as traffic impedance, which improves the forecast accuracy to some extent. Finally, taking Nanchang-Jiujiang intercity railway as the empirical analysis sample, the result obtained shows the practicality and simplicity of the method.
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