The research of prediction of future violent crime rate

Abstract

Crime is a destabilizing factor in our society. However, if the government could understand how the violent crime rate would change, they could enact proper policy to cope with it. In this case, this research will predict the future violent crime rate based on the data from 1991 to 2020 since 1991 is an important turning point of American crime rate. With R-Studio, this research analyzes the effectiveness of the average method, nave method, drift method, linear model, and autoregressive moving average model (Arima model) in the prediction and selects the best one with the smallest residuals and negligible autocorrelation. Based on the analysis, the Arima (0, 2, 0), which is one type of Arima model, does the greatest job in the prediction. According to the model this research eventually uses, the violent crime rate will start to increase from 2021 to 2025, showing that the violent crime condition may get worse. As a result, the government should pay more attention to violent crime to maintain the social security.