The Republic of Korea-Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Services Project

Abstract

Abstract Seasonal prediction provides critical information for the tropical Pacific region, where the economy and livelihood is highly dependent on climate variability. While the highest skills of dynamical prediction systems are usually found in the tropical Pacific, National Hydrological and Meteorological Services (NHMS) in the Pacific Islands Countries (PICs) do not take full advantage of such scientific achievements. The Republic of Korea-Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Services (ROK-PI CliPS) project aims to help PICs produce regionally tailored climate prediction information using a dynamical seasonal prediction system. The project is being jointly implemented by the APEC Climate Center (APCC) and the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP), in close collaboration with NHMSs in PICs. The regionally tailored, dynamical-statistical hybrid climate prediction system uses predictors that were identified through communications with NHMSs. The predictors were selected based on the empirical physical relationship of the local climate fluctuations, indicated by multi-institutional and multimodel ensembles. This hybrid system makes full use of dynamical seasonal predictions, which have not been commonly utilized in current operation in PICs. In accordance with system development, additional efforts have been made for PIC NHMSs to build capacity by increasing their knowledge and skill needed to develop such methodologies and systems. Nonetheless, the successive and strategic efforts to sustain and further improve climate predictions in the Pacific Islands region are required.