Abstract
Abstract. Changes in incoming solar ultraviolet radiation over the 11-year solar cycle affect stratospheric ozone abundances. It is important to quantify the magnitude, structure, and seasonality of the associated solar-ozone response (SOR) to understand the impact of the 11-year solar cycle on climate. Part 1 of this two-part study uses multiple linear regression analysis to extract the SOR in a number of recently updated satellite ozone datasets covering different periods within the epoch 1970 to 2013. The annual mean SOR in the updated version 7.0 (v7.0) Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II number density dataset (1984–2004) is very consistent with that found in the previous v6.2. In contrast, we find a substantial decrease in the magnitude of the SOR in the tropical upper stratosphere in the SAGE II v7.0 mixing ratio dataset (∼ 1 %) compared to the v6.2 (∼ 4 %). This difference is shown to be largely attributable to the change in the independent stratospheric temperature dataset used to convert SAGE II ozone number densities to mixing ratios. Since these temperature records contain substantial uncertainties, we suggest that datasets based on SAGE II number densities are currently most reliable for evaluating the SOR. We further analyse three extended ozone datasets that combine SAGE II v7.0 number densities with more recent GOMOS (Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars) or OSIRIS (Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System) measurements. The extended SAGE–OSIRIS dataset (1984–2013) shows a smaller and less statistically significant SOR across much of the tropical upper stratosphere compared to the SAGE II data alone. In contrast, the two SAGE–GOMOS datasets (1984–2011) show SORs that are in closer agreement with the original SAGE II data and therefore appear to provide a more reliable estimate of the SOR. We also analyse the SOR in the recent Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument (SBUV) Merged Ozone Dataset (SBUVMOD) version 8.6 (VN8.6) (1970–2012) and SBUV Merged Cohesive VN8.6 (1978–2012) datasets and compare them to the previous SBUVMOD VN8.0 (1970–2009). Over their full lengths, the three records generally agree in terms of the broad magnitude and structure of the annual mean SOR. The main difference is that SBUVMOD VN8.6 shows a smaller and less significant SOR in the tropical upper stratosphere and therefore more closely resembles the SAGE II v7.0 mixing ratio data than does the SBUV Merged Cohesive VN8.6, which has a more continuous SOR of ∼ 2 % in this region. The sparse spatial and temporal sampling of limb satellite instruments prohibits the extraction of sub-annual variations in the SOR from SAGE-based datasets. However, the SBUVMOD VN8.6 dataset suggests substantial month-to-month variations in the SOR, particularly in the winter extratropics, which may be important for the proposed high-latitude dynamical response to the solar cycle. Overall, the results highlight substantial uncertainties in the magnitude and structure of the observed SOR from different satellite records. The implications of these uncertainties for understanding and modelling the effects of solar variability on climate should be explored.
Highlights
Whilst fractional changes in total solar irradiance (TSI) between the maximum and minimum phases of the approximately 11-year solar cycle are known to be small (< 0.1 %), there is enhanced fractional variability in the ultraviolet (UV) spectral region (> 6 %) (e.g. Ermolli et al, 2013)
Given the uncertainties in the solar-ozone response (SOR) diagnosed for Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II mixing ratios discussed above, we focus our analysis of the extended SAGE II records on the three SI2N datasets that are currently available as number densities: SAGE–GOMOS 1, SAGE–GOMOS 2, and SAGE–OSIRIS
Given the denser sampling of Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument (SBUV) compared to SAGE II, we focus here on the SBUV Merged Ozone Dataset (SBUVMOD) VN8.6 dataset to examine the seasonality of the SOR
Summary
Whilst fractional changes in total solar irradiance (TSI) between the maximum and minimum phases of the approximately 11-year solar cycle are known to be small (< 0.1 %), there is enhanced fractional variability in the ultraviolet (UV) spectral region (> 6 %) (e.g. Ermolli et al, 2013). An increase in UV irradiance impacts stratospheric heating rates, and temperatures, through two main mechanisms: (1) enhanced absorption of radiation by ozone and (2) enhanced production of ozone through the photolysis of oxygen at wavelengths less than 242 nm Consistent with these mechanisms, past studies using observations, reanalysis data, and models have identified an increase in annual mean temperature in the upper stratosphere of up to ∼ 1.5 K between solar maximum and minimum Ramaswamy et al, 2001; Mitchell et al, 2015a; Austin et al, 2008) and an increase in ozone abundances of a few percent (Soukharev and Hood, 2006; Haigh, 1994) These radiatively driven changes modify the meridional temperature gradients in the upper stratosphere, which can lead to a modulation of planetary wave propagation and breaking and changes in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex Constraining the stratospheric response to solar forcing is important for understanding solar–climate coupling and potential sources of decadal variability in the climate system (e.g. Thiéblemont et al, 2015)
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