The Remarkable Predictive Power of Infrared Data of Blazars

Abstract

Blazars are the brightest and most abundant persistent sources in the extragalactic γ-ray sky. Due to their significance, they are often observed across various energy bands, where the data of which can be used to explore potential correlations between emission at different energies, yielding valuable insights into the emission processes of their powerful jets. In this study we utilized IR data at 3.4 and 4.6 μm from the Near-Earth Object Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer Reactivation Mission, spanning 8 yr of observations, X-ray data from the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory collected throughout the satellite’s lifetime, and 12 years of γ-ray measurements from the Fermi Large Area Telescope’s all-sky survey. Our analysis reveals that the IR spectral slope reliably predicts the peak frequency and maximum intensity of the synchrotron component of blazar spectral energy distributions, provided it is uncontaminated by radiation unrelated to the jet. A notable correlation between the IR and γ-ray fluxes was observed, with the BL Lacertae subclass of blazars displaying a strong correlation coefficient of r = 0.80. IR band variability is more pronounced in flat spectrum radio quasars than in BL Lacertae objects, with mean fractional variability values of 0.65 and 0.35, respectively. We also observed that the synchrotron peak intensity of intermediate-high-energy-peaked objects can forecast their detectability at very high γ-ray energies. We used this predicting power to identify objects in current catalogs that could meet the detection threshold of the Cerenkov Telescope Array extragalactic survey, which should encompass approximately 180 blazars.