Abstract
This paper is aimed to identify the predicted factors for the world stock market in the last six decades, and up to the first quarter of 2021 year. The historical data and analysis of trends for volumes, and prices besides the fundamentals data such as interest rates, currency exchange rates, inflation rates, trading volume, and annual returns for listed corporations, used to be the predicted factors available to forecast the financial stock markets prices and volume, for the listed companies, national stock index, and regional stock indexes. However, in the last six decades, other new major factors became more reliable keys for the prediction of future prices and volume trends, in the world stock markets besides the previous two factors. These include the options strike rates for underling shares, psychological price barriers, national, regional and international crises, irrational and noise trading, and finally the health crisis known as the COVID-19, as what happened in 2020. This paper discussed these predicted factors which now dominate in the world stock markets, and suggested stated ratios for the reliability of each presented measure, during different decades up to April of 2021, and how the reliability of theses indictors was changed from one decade to another.
Highlights
The volume of word financial stock markets increased significantly in the last decades
In the last six decades, other new major factors became more reliable keys for the prediction of future prices and volume trends, in the world stock markets besides the previous two factors. These include the options strike rates for underling shares, psychological price barriers, national, regional and international crises, irrational and noise trading, and the health crisis known as the COVID-19, as what happened in 2020. This paper discussed these predicted factors which dominate in the world stock markets, and suggested stated ratios for the reliability of each presented measure, during different decades up to April of 2021, and how the reliability of theses indictors was changed from one decade to another
Some crisis were related to adverse effect of political risk, adverse impact of related markets, adverse effect of political risk, noise trading and adverse information, inefficiency of related laws, high correlation between world stock indices, overreaction for earning announcements, Adverse impact of other related markets such as bond markets (Sabri, 2002b). This phenomenon created new facts in the world stock market, where ever a national, regional or Global financial crisis will reflect on other markets regarding prices and volatility of prices, and return, due to the interactions between markets as well as the increased associations between price indexes, which are increasing in the last decades, including both emerging and developed stock markets (Sabri, 2002b, 2002c, 2007)
Summary
The volume of word financial stock markets increased significantly in the last decades. It reached for the first time to 109 USD$ trillion in November 2020, with increase of 20% compared to 2019 (WFE, 2020a). This is an increase in the new listed companies through IPOs, and the total number of listed compa-. The world stock market is witnessed significant changes in the last decades besides the increase of trading volume, it is moving so rapidly towards globalization, and integration of local financial markets through cross borders transactions (Sabri, 2007). The high volatility of stock prices increased during short periods, which makes prediction of prices more difficult and investments in financial markets are riskier due to the globalization environment (Sabri, 2002a, 2006). In order to point out the reliability percentages of predicting the world stock markets trends during the last six decades
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