Abstract
The Catalan secessionist parties, if added together, have won all the elections to the Parliament of Catalonia from 2010 to 2021. Their voters have been increasingly mobilized since the start of the controversial reform process of the Statute of Autonomy (2004–2010). The aim of this article is twofold. First, it intends to test whether language is the strongest predictor in preferring independence in two separate and distinct moments, 1996 and 2020. And second, to assess whether its strength has changed—and how—between both years. Only the most exogenous variables to the dependent variable are used in each of two logistic regressions to avoid problems of endogeneity: sex, age, size of town of residence, place of birth of the individual and of their parents, first language (L1), and educational level. Among them, L1 was—and still is—the most powerful predictor, although it is not entirely determinative. The secessionist movement not only gathers a plurality of Catalan native speakers, but it receives a not insignificant level of support among those who have Spanish as their L1. Conversely, the unionist group, despite being composed primarily by people who have Spanish as their L1 and have their family origins outside Catalonia, has a native Catalan-speaking minority inside. This imperfect division, which is based on ethnolinguistic alignments—and whose relevance cannot be neglected—alleviates the likelihood of an ethnic-based conflict.
Highlights
Secessionism, since the first successful declaration of independence was signed in 1776, is present in the polit‐ ical reality worldwide
While in 1996, being male reduces the chances of agreeing with independence, in 2020 it is the other way around and, in addition, it is with minimal statistical significance
The likelihood of wanting inde‐ pendence depending on whether one has Catalan as L1 compared to Spanish was 77% in 1996 and 80% in 2020, only a low increase of probability
Summary
Secessionism, since the first successful declaration of independence was signed in 1776, is present in the polit‐ ical reality worldwide. There are two major approaches to analyse them: compara‐ tive studies and case studies. The latter is the option taken here, with the intention of bringing some clues to understand the growth of secessionism in Catalonia in recent years. 36.4% of the population liv‐ ing in Catalonia were born outside of Catalonia (Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya, 2020) In this context, the Catalan language, a traditional marker of “Catalanness,” went from being the first language (L1) of the vast major‐ ity of the Catalan population in 1900 (de Rosselló Peralta et al, 2020), to becoming L1 of only 31.5% of the popu‐ lation. It is the reported language of iden‐ tification of 43.2% of the population, while 94.4% say they understand Catalan and 81.2% can speak it (Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya, 2018)
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