The relative roles of different land-use types in bike-sharing demand: A machine learning-based multiple interpolation fusion method

Abstract

Land use plays a crucial role in promoting the bike-sharing demand. Traditionally, studies on bike-sharing demand (BSD) are mainly focused on its prediction through regression methods, but the influence of MAUP (modifiable areal unit problem) in modeling is ignored. This paper aims to model spatial BSD distribution and prove the driving forces of different land use types to BSD through a machine-learning-based multiple interpolation fusion method. The hotspot detection model is employed to establish sample points covering different land use types in urban areas. In order to capture the differences in adaptations among different urban regions and for different data sizes, six machine learning methods are applied and evaluated to improve BSD estimation by fusing five spatial interpolation algorithms, including Inverse Distance Weight, Spline, Kriging, Natural Neighborhood and Trend. The methodological verification of Beijing City shows that the fusion models improve the estimation performance compared with individual interpolation algorithms, and that GRNN (generalized regression neural network) method is superior to all the others. According to fitting results of all POIs based on the GRNN fusion model, we identify which types of facilities correspond to customers that will have a stronger preference for bike-sharing and demonstrate which facility names are more prominent in each land use type. The conclusions presented here enrich our understanding relationships between land-use and BSD, which provide a valuable foundation for the bike-sharing development. Compared with implementing regression in an analysis zone or a square grid, troubles caused by the MAUP are effectively solved through this method.