The relative role of the subsurface Southern Ocean in driving negative Antarctic Sea ice extent anomalies in 2016-202

Abstract

The low Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) following its dramatic decline in late 2016 has persisted over a multiyear period. However, it remains unclear to what extent this low SIE can be attributed to changing ocean conditions. Here, we investigate the causes of this period of low Antarctic SIE using a coupled climate model partially constrained by observations. We find that the subsurface Southern Ocean (SO) played a smaller role than the atmosphere in the extreme SIE low in 2016, but was critical for the persistence of negative anomalies over 2016-2021. Prior to 2016, the subsurface SO warmed in response to enhanced westerly winds. Decadal hindcasts show that subsurface warming has persisted and gradually destabilized the ocean from below, reducing SIE over several years. The simultaneous variations in the atmosphere and ocean after 2016 have further amplified the decline in Antarctic SIE.