Abstract
Relatively older athletes have a greater probability of being selected and subsequently exposed to a higher level of coaching, training and other talent-promoting factors. Grouping by chronological age is, therefore, considered to be one of the weaknesses in talent identification. A large number of studies have confirmed the prevalence of the relative age effect (RAE) across various sports, including swimming. This investigation aims to quantify the prevalence, magnitude and transient pattern of the RAE according to sex and events across German swimmers. The RAE was examined top-100 ranked swimmers (2004–2013) according to birth month, of three cohorts (born 1993–1995; n = 3630) for the age groups 11–18. The Χ2 tests and Cramer’s V estimated effect sizes; odd’s ratios and confidence intervals calculated relative discrepancies between the quartiles. The RAE is significantly present over all events for female swimmers until 13–15 and for males until 16–18 years of age. Effect sizes were moderate until 12/13 years of age for females and 14/15 years of age for males. No inverted effects were visible. Compared to previous reports on Australian as well as Portuguese cohorts, the RAE was prevalent over a longer time period. Therefore, the impact of negative outcomes from RAE appears to be greater among German age group swimmers.
Highlights
The prediction of future world class athletes is very complex and has been almost impossible until today
Cobley et al reported the effect to invert a year later among their Australian swimmers, whereas the present findings revealed no inversion until 18 years of age among German swimmers
More insights on the connection of RAE to maturation as well as potential influence of geographical heritage in connection to pressure of talent selection are of further interest (Sherar et al, 2007) and may be investigated by future research. This investigation provides new data contributing to the research on the relative age effect (RAE)
Summary
The prediction of future world class athletes is very complex and has been almost impossible until today. Multiple direct (primary) and indirect (secondary) influential factors impact or facilitate successful pathways of athletes (Baker & Horton, 2004). The relative age effect (RAE) appears to be a consistent, pervasive secondary factor influencing outcome of success (Wattie, Schorer, & Baker, 2015). Where the distribution of births in common settings like the school system is spread, in the sport setting there appears to be a general gradient of about 40% for athletes born in the first three months after a certain cut-off date, 30% for the second quarter, 20% for the third quarter and only 10% for the fourth quartile (Helsen, 2018). Researchers have conceded the prevalence of a RAE across a multitude of sports (Cobley, Baker, Wattie, & McKenna, 2009; Musch & Grodin, 2001).
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