Abstract
Several studies have concluded that mountainous countries such as Nepal are more vulnerable to climate change; thus, a changing climate should have a significant impact on crop yields. This work aims to explore the impact of climate change on major crop yields in the mountainous parts of Nepal and to determine their relationships based on a regression model between historical climatic data and yield data for food crops. The study starts with an analysis of the last 30 years of climatic data from Lamjung district. Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope methods have been used for the trend analysis and quantification. The results showed an increase in temperature of approximately 0.02 °C to 0.07 °C per year in different seasons and a mixed trend in precipitation. Although there was no significant impact of the climate variables on the yields of all crops, the regression analysis revealed negative relationships between maize yield and summer precipitation and between wheat yield and winter minimum temperature, and a positive relationship between millet yield and summer maximum temperature.
Highlights
In the mountainous country of Nepal, more than 60% of the population is dependent on agriculture, which contributes 35% of the gross domestic product [1]
Several other studies have revealed that the precipitation trend in Nepal varies due to the interaction of heterogeneous topography with the monsoon and westerly wind systems [32]
This study concludes that climate variables have differential impacts on the yield growth of different crops
Summary
In the mountainous country of Nepal, more than 60% of the population is dependent on agriculture, which contributes 35% of the gross domestic product [1]. Several crops can be cultivated in Nepal; five major crops, i.e., rice, maize, wheat, millet and barley, dominate the agricultural sector [2] These crops represent more than 90% of the total grain production and cultivated area in Nepal [2]. Rice and maize are the primary crops that contribute more than half of the total food grain production of Nepal and are grown from the lowlands in the Terai (70 meters above sea level) through high hills (2830 meters above sea level) [3]. The study of the various impacts of climate changes on these crop yields is urgently required for planning the future food availability in the country
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