The relationship between students’ socio-demographics and the probability of grade repetition in Brazilian primary education: is it decreasing over time?

Abstract

This article aims at a better understanding of the Brazilian education system’s performance concerning the quality and equity over the decade 2007–2017. It examines the extent to which students’ sociodemographic characteristics are related to schooling trajectory without failure in primary education and how such relationships have changed over time. Multilevel logistic models are applied to cross-sectional student assessment data (Prova Brasil), considering the hierarchical structure of four levels. The total number of students covered is 12.4 million. The results suggest a pattern of educational inequity marked by socioeconomically disadvantaged status, gender, and self-declared race/ethnicity. The analyses show that the gender gap increased and the differentials by socioeconomic status and race/skin colour decreased over the decade. The estimates also suggest that the effect of school socioeconomic composition was reduced, but the effect of the proportion of repeating students per school on the individual probability of success was reinforced. In addition, the probability of students’ success varies randomly across schools, municipalities, and states, and such educational disparities across states are increasing over time.