The Relationship Between Stock Performance and Money Supply Based on VAR Model in the Context of E-commerce

Abstract

Abstract With the development of network technology, electronic money as a payment and settlement tool based on the network has been developing at an unprecedented speed. Based on the background of e-commerce, this study uses the data from June 2012 to June 2022 to establish a vector autoregressive model to study the interaction between oil prices, stock performance, and money supply. Such a model can not only further our understanding of the complex relationship between these important variables but also shed light on future oil prices. Granger causality test, impulse response function analysis, and variance decomposition analysis have been applied to variables in the model. The main finding is that oil price responds to changes in stock performance and money supply, stock performance is affected by both oil price and money supply, and changes in money supply can be explained by stock performance fluctuations. Such a relationship can help inform traders in e-commerce and investment banking to generate better predictions of future oil prices.