The Relationship Between Net Migration and Selected Macroeconomic Variables: A VAR Model for Canada

Abstract

Throughout human history, in addition to forced migration due to reasons such as disasters, wars and internal turmoil, it has been observed that economic reasons such as employment, unemployment, education, income, poverty etc. have also had an effect on migration, and that the social and economic structure of the countries has an effect on migration, as well as many effects on the countries from which migration occurs and the countries that receive migration. For this reason, the phenomenon of migration has been at the center of many studies as it affects the changes in the economic, political and social structures of countries. When the migration literature is examined, it is seen that economic factors such as inflation, employment and income, as well as the attitudes, behaviors and policies of the administration and society of the country accepting the immigrant, are effective in immigrants' preference for that country. This study examines the economic factors that cause immigration to Canada, a country that attracts attention with its multicultural structure and receives frequent and large amounts of immigration. In the study, the relationship between net immigration and economic growth, inflation and unemployment was evaluated using time series analysis for the research period 1998-2022. The findings obtained as a result of the analysis show that macroeconomic variables, especially unemployment, are effective on migration. Keywords: Migration, Macroeconomic Indicators, Time Series Analysis, Vector Auto Regression, Canada.