The Relationship between National-Level Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Population Size: An Assessment of Regional and Temporal Variation, 1960–2005

Andrew K Jorgenson,Brett Clark,Gil Bohrer

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0057107

Abstract

This study examines the regional and temporal differences in the statistical relationship between national-level carbon dioxide emissions and national-level population size. The authors analyze panel data from 1960 to 2005 for a diverse sample of nations, and employ descriptive statistics and rigorous panel regression modeling techniques. Initial descriptive analyses indicate that all regions experienced overall increases in carbon emissions and population size during the 45-year period of investigation, but with notable differences. For carbon emissions, the sample of countries in Asia experienced the largest percent increase, followed by countries in Latin America, Africa, and lastly the sample of relatively affluent countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania combined. For population size, the sample of countries in Africa experienced the largest percent increase, followed countries in Latin America, Asia, and the combined sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Findings for two-way fixed effects panel regression elasticity models of national-level carbon emissions indicate that the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size is much smaller for nations in Africa than for nations in other regions of the world. Regarding potential temporal changes, from 1960 to 2005 the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size decreased by 25% for the sample of Africa countries, 14% for the sample of Asia countries, 6.5% for the sample of Latin America countries, but remained the same in size for the sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Overall, while population size continues to be the primary driver of total national-level anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, the findings for this study highlight the need for future research and policies to recognize that the actual impacts of population size on national-level carbon emissions differ across both time and region.

Highlights

Population size and growth are widely recognized as primary drivers of national-level anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, other greenhouse gas emissions, and environmental degradation outcomes, including ground-level air pollutants, deforestation, and the overall consumption of natural resources [1,2,3,4,5]
Turning to the sample of 24 countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania, their combined carbon dioxide emissions increased from 4,590,423,000 metric tons in 1960 to 9,974,284,000 metric tons in 2005, representing slightly more than a 117% increase
Like past research on national-level anthropogenic emissions [1,2,3,10,12,13,14,15,19], this study shows that overall population size is a primary driver of total carbon emissions in cross-national contexts

Summary

Introduction

Population size and growth are widely recognized as primary drivers of national-level anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, other greenhouse gas emissions, and environmental degradation outcomes, including ground-level air pollutants, deforestation, and the overall consumption of natural resources [1,2,3,4,5]. The STIRPAT orientation (‘‘Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology’’) is perhaps the most well established and widely known body of work in the environmental social sciences that routinely considers in cross-national analyses the effects of population size on greenhouse gas emissions as well as other related sustainability factors and environmental change conditions (see http://stirpat.msu.edu/ for the extensive bibliography of published research in this multidisciplinary tradition) This body of research consistently shows that the effect of population size on national-level total carbon emissions is positive and much larger in magnitude than other human drivers, such as economic development and levels of urbanization (e.g., [12,13]). Such global-level analyses are unable to identify regional-level differences, and they do not provide estimated coefficients for the effects of population parameters or other factors on carbon emissions

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