The relationship between energy consumption, trade, GDP (economic growth), population growth and carbon emissions: a recent evidence from South Africa

Abstract

This article examines the long-run as well as causal relationship between energy consumption, trade, GDP (economic growth), population growth and carbon emissions in South Africa over a 39-year period (1975 to 2013). Unit root tests procedures determined that the series was stationary and the Johansen co-integration tests proved that they were co-integrated. The VEC model indicated the existence of four forms of long-run relationships in which all variables determined carbon emissions, energy consumption, GDP (economic growth) and trade, respectively within the South African scenario, with the exception of population growth. Granger-causality tests showed that trade and energy consumption develop bidirectional relationships with carbon emissions while GDP (economic growth) and population growth form unidirectional relationships with such emissions. Furthermore, impulse-response analysis showed that carbon emissions' response to both GDP (economic growth) and population growth is insignificant while that to both trade and energy consumption is significant and indicated a constant trend within the considered 30-year period horizon.