The relationship between elevation-dependent warming and long-term trend of surface air temperature lapse rate

Abstract

The intensity and direction of elevation-dependent warming (EDW) could vary in different parts of the mountain, while less attention is paid to the local EDW effect. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the T'ai-hang & Lvliang Mountains in Shanxi Province of China (TLMsx) were taken as cases to examine the relationship between EDW and the long-term trend of surface air temperature (SAT) lapse rate (SATLR). For the observed data, the intensity of regional EDW (IEDW) was estimated with linear regression model, while the SATLR was estimated with geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The long-term trend of SATLR was estimated applying the modified Theil-Sen method, and the regional average SATLR trend (kSATLR¯) was calculated and analyzed. Both observed data and simulation experiment revealed that there was not significant difference between IEDW and −kSATLR¯, with a little difference caused by the noise in the SAT trends. As the SATLR trend measured the difference in the surface air warming rate within 1-km vertical distance, i.e. the intensity of EDW in a small spatial scale, in the context of climate warming, it could be used to estimate the intensity of local EDW. The SATLR trend thus provided a new perspective to study the EDW effect in the future, and facilitated the quantitative analysis on the mechanisms of EDW.