The relationship between compartment models and their stochastic counterparts: A comparative study with examples of the COVID-19 epidemic modeling.

Abstract

Deterministic compartment models (CMs) and stochastic models, including stochastic CMs and agent-based models, are widely utilized in epidemic modeling. However, the relationship between CMs and their corresponding stochastic models is not well understood. The present study aimed to address this gap by conducting a comparative study using the susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) model and its extended CMs from the coronavirus disease 2019 modeling literature. We demonstrated the equivalence of the numerical solution of CMs using the Euler scheme and their stochastic counterparts through theoretical analysis and simulations. Based on this equivalence, we proposed an efficient model calibration method that could replicate the exact solution of CMs in the corresponding stochastic models through parameter adjustment. The advancement in calibration techniques enhanced the accuracy of stochastic modeling in capturing the dynamics of epidemics. However, it should be noted that discrete-time stochastic models cannot perfectly reproduce the exact solution of continuous-time CMs. Additionally, we proposed a new stochastic compartment and agent mixed model as an alternative to agent-based models for large-scale population simulations with a limited number of agents. This model offered a balance between computational efficiency and accuracy. The results of this research contributed to the comparison and unification of deterministic CMs and stochastic models in epidemic modeling. Furthermore, the results had implications for the development of hybrid models that integrated the strengths of both frameworks. Overall, the present study has provided valuable epidemic modeling techniques and their practical applications for understanding and controlling the spread of infectious diseases.