The relationship between climate variability and wheat yield in Tashkent province

Abstract

This study focuses on the relationships between climate variability and wheat yield in Tashkent province. It contains a time series study of precipitation, temperature, and wheat yield, as well as the assessment of the link between yield and climatic factors and an examination of the influence of climate change on crop production using a regression model. Time series results of temperature present a positive trend in mean temperature in Bustanlik and Urtachirchik. Annual minimum temperature, the minimum temperature in spring, minimum temperature between September and May have changed significantly in Bustanlik over the years (p<0.05). Total precipitation shows a favourable trend in Bustanlik but a negative trend in Urtachirchik. There is no significant change detected in the time series. The magnitude of the change in climate variables shows no clear tendency. Wheat yield has changed significantly and increased up to 1.34 c/ha every year between 1998-2014. The highest association is determined between wheat yield and minimum temperature in the growing season (0.77) while the highest correlation was identified with the summer maximum temperature (-0.41) in Urtachirchik. The linear multiple regression model forecasted the wheat yield with a mean error of 0.08 c/ha in Urtachirchik and 0.06 c/ha in Bustanlik district.