The Relation between War, General Purpose Technologies and Dynamics of K-Waves for Technological, Economic and Social Change

Abstract

This essay here has two goals. The first is to clarify, whenever possible, the sources of Long Waves (LWs) or Kondratieff Waves (K-waves). The second is to show that the wars can be one of principal sources of path-breaking technologies that support Long Waves for the technological, economic and social change over the long run. As a matter of fact, a fundamental problem in the field of economic growth is how LWs emerge and sustain economic and social change. The vast literature has analyzed several characteristics and factors of LWs. However, the root causes of LWs are hardly known. This study shows that the possible sources of LWs are due to structural change of major warfare that generate General Purpose Technologies and clusters of innovation for technological, economic and social change over time. In fact, the war is a major agent of change that generates both huge demand-side effects with expansionary policies and powerful supply-side effects based on learning by doing in strategic productions, spin-off and technological spillover from military R&D (period of the “creative destruction”). In particular, major wars generate clusters of new technology (in troughs of LWs) that support the subsequent recovery-prosperity phase of LWs with new radical and incremental innovations, their commercial introduction, and widespread adoption in markets. These main factors drive the evolution of LWs and generate technological, productivity and economic growth in society over the long run. Overall, then, the main aim of this study is to clarify, whenever possible one of main driving forces of LWs and economic change in society.