The regional employment implications of a net-zero economy in Costa Rica under uncertainty

Abstract

This study estimates job creation from Costa Rica's transition to net-zero emissions by 2050, contrasting it with a business-as-usual scenario (BAU) using employment multipliers from Costa Rica’s input–output matrix. The model is soft-linked with a bottom-up technology‒rich regional model of the CLEW sectors in Costa Rica. A robust decision-making-inspired approach is taken to assess the effects of uncertainty on the estimations. The study addresses a literature gap in modeling subnational employment while accounting for long-term uncertainty and allows to identify economic activities affected by the transformation, so that policies regarding a just transition can be properly developed and stakeholders incentivized to take active participation in the process. Under baseline assumptions, a net-zero economy would have 135 thousand more jobs by 2050 than the BAU, equivalent to 7% of the employed population in 2017. Energy-related jobs would triple by mid-21st century, and regions capitalizing on renewables would perceive the highest gain. When considering uncertainty, the net jobs range between 35‒750 thousand. Since net positive outcomes in terms of jobs are feasible, global governance should focus efforts on policies that enhance these.