The regional disparity of per-capita CO2 emissions in China’s building sector: An analysis of macroeconomic drivers and policy implications

Abstract

There are significant regional differences in CO2 emissions in China’s building sector. Analyzing and understanding this geographic inequality and its drivers is crucial for balanced regional development and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction. In this paper, we estimated the CO2 emissions of China’s building sector at the provincial level and then calculated the Theil Index of per-capita CO2 emissions generated from different building types. Based on these results, a Kaya identity was applied to analyze the drivers of the inequality in CO2 emissions across China. We found that the inequality index of the different types of buildings makes a significant difference. In general, the Theil Index for public buildings and urban buildings is higher than that for rural buildings. Income, energy intensity and energy mix are the principal drivers of regional disparity of per-capita emissions. Economic growth helps to narrow regional disparities for residential buildings, but its contribution is not significant for public buildings. For all building types, energy intensity is the primary contributor to emissions inequality, and the imbalanced implementation of energy efficiency policies is a leading factor. Energy mix plays an increasing role in the regional disparities of per-capita CO2 emissions, especially for rural buildings. Reducing these regional disparities is crucial to China’s goal of achieving peak GHG emissions and reaching carbon neutrality. This paper highlights the importance of per-capita CO2 emissions in formulating carbon peak planning, allocating regional emissions reduction targets, formulating building energy policies and allocating low-carbon resources.