Abstract
This paper studies a three player hierarchical differential game (with a large country, a small country, and a terrorist organization), to analyze the actual European refugee situation. Terrorists may enter Europe as refugees, taking advantage of the Open Door Policy, to attack both countries. There are two scenarios: myopia and full awareness. Countries are myopic when they ignore each other’s security efforts, and the terrorist group only considers the weakest link’s security efforts. A comparison between the scenarios shows that for an extremely impatient large country, full awareness yields a greater level of security effort for the large country, a greater level of security effort for the small country, and more terrorist attacks. This is, however, an unstable equilibrium. The full awareness model with a patient large country is stable and lies in between the previous model and the myopic model. Although it yields larger investments in security, this still results in more terrorist attacks than the myopic model. Continental safety is higher in the myopic model than in the full awareness model.
Highlights
In August 2015, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced her new Open Door Policy (ODP)“to provide refuge to anyone coming from Syria in addition to others seeking protection from violence and warfare.”1 A few months later, on November 13, 2015, Paris suffered terror attacks that killed at least 130 people and wounded hundreds.2 There is evidence that some of the Paris attackers traveled to Syria,3 raising concerns that ISIS was taking advantage of the ODP to infiltrate its operatives to organize, lead, and carry out terrorist attacks in Europe
A comparison between the scenarios yields the result that for an extremely impatient large country, full awareness yields a greater level of security effort for the large country, a greater level of security effort for the small country, and, because of backlash (e.g., Faria and Arce [5,6] (2005, 2012a); Siqueira and Sandler, [7] (2007)), more terrorist attacks
The contribution of the present paper is to provide a differential game model to study the link between refugees and terrorism considering externalities between countries with respect to provision of security
Summary
In August 2015, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced her new Open Door Policy (ODP)“to provide refuge to anyone coming from Syria in addition to others seeking protection from violence and warfare.” A few months later, on November 13, 2015, Paris suffered terror attacks that killed at least 130 people and wounded hundreds. There is evidence that some of the Paris attackers traveled to Syria, raising concerns that ISIS was taking advantage of the ODP to infiltrate its operatives to organize, lead, and carry out terrorist attacks in Europe. In August 2015, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced her new Open Door Policy (ODP). “to provide refuge to anyone coming from Syria in addition to others seeking protection from violence and warfare.” A few months later, on November 13, 2015, Paris suffered terror attacks that killed at least 130 people and wounded hundreds.. There is evidence that some of the Paris attackers traveled to Syria, raising concerns that ISIS was taking advantage of the ODP to infiltrate its operatives to organize, lead, and carry out terrorist attacks in Europe. In 2016, officials at Frontex, EU’s border and coast guard agency, admitted that ISIS terrorists are taking advantage of disorganized border checks by posing as migrants to infiltrate Europe.. Most Europeans fear ISIS terrorist attacks and think that refugees will increase the likelihood of. In 2016, officials at Frontex, EU’s border and coast guard agency, admitted that ISIS terrorists are taking advantage of disorganized border checks by posing as migrants to infiltrate Europe. Not surprisingly, as reported by the Pew Research
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