The reduced mortality of malignant melanoma at the population level is mainly attributable to treatment advances for the past decade

Abstract

BackgroundCutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) causes most skin cancer deaths in the United States (US). The mortality has been decreasing in the US population. We hypothesize that this population-level reduction is mainly attributable to the treatment advances, rather than the successful primary and secondary prevention. MethodsUsing data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) databases, we collected the incidence, incidence-based mortality (IBM), and 5-year survival (5-YS) rates of CMM from 1994 to 2019. Trends by stage and sex were examined by joinpoint regression analyses and age-period-cohort analyses. ResultsThe overall incidence of CMM rose by 1.6% yearly from 1994 to 2006 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.9% to 2.2%) and then increased with a numerical trend. And we projected the incidence will continue to increase until 2029. In contrast, the IBM for all CMM has decreased yearly by 2.8% (95% CI: −3.9% to −1.8%) since 2010 after continuously increasing by 3.8% annually (95% CI: 3.2% to 4.4%) from 1996 to 2010. For early-stage (localized and regional) CMM, we found the incidence since 2005 plateaued without further increase, while the incidence for CMM at distant stage continuously increased by 1.4% per year (95% CI: 0.9% to 2.0%). Improvements in 5-YS were observed over the study period for all CMM and were most obvious in distant stage. And significant period effects were noted around the year 2010. ConclusionThis study demonstrated improved survival and reduced mortality of CMM at the US population level since 2010, which were consistent with the introduction of novel therapies. Encouraging effects of primary prevention among adolescents in the most recent cohorts were found. However, the plateaued overall incidence and early diagnosis rates indicated that advances in primary and secondary prevention are very much needed to further control the burden of CMM.