The realities of the economy of Kazakhstan: the possible impact of the new global economic crisis

Abstract

The emergence of a pandemic has a great impact on the macroeconomic processes taking place in the world. These processes are also superimposed by the crises of political transformation associated with the emergence of new political elites in global centers that influence the management of economic and political processes around the world. The article examines the probability of a possible economic crisis in Kazakhstan and its consequences. Today, it is very important for the country to objectively analyze all our achievements and failures in economic policy over the past thirty years in order to move forward. The emergence of new payment instruments, digital currency and cryptocurrency contributes to the destruction of the old model of financing the economy, which will inevitably lead to global changes in the world economy and a possible crisis in all areas of development. The main place where these events related to the virtualization of financial resources take place are the stock exchanges and stock markets of the leading countries of the world economy, the so–called “G-7”, and China. Reduction of energy prices may cause deterioration of the balance of payments and sharply increase the costs from the funds of the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan. High inflation under any economic development scenarios can accelerate and go beyond the boundaries of the “inflation corridor” and exceed 10%. Another factor of pressure on the financial and banking sector is an increase in the interest rate at the Central Bank of Russia in the near future to 6.75–7.0%, given our close economic ties within the EAEU.