The real dollar-yen exchange rate, asymmetries in trade flows and the current account in a perfect-foresight model for developing East Asia

Abstract

This paper explores permanent, unanticipated shocks in the yen-dollar exchange rate in a perfect-foresight, infinite-horizon, representative-agent model for an open, semismall economy that produces a single good, imports intermediate inputs and investment goods from Japan and competes with Japan in external markets. Therefore, the model captures some of the features of the developing countries of East Asia. External debt is constrained by a country-risk premium that depends on the level of external debt. The capital stock is maintained and incremented by an endogenous mixture of Japanese and home goods. An appreciation of the dollar against the yen is neutral for external indebtedness and the trade account in the long run, but raises the capital stock, consumption and hence welfare in the long run; the home currency depreciates against the dollar but appreciates against the yen. Whether a cycle of current account surpluses followed by current account deficits or vice versa is generated depends on the initial response of the shadow value of external debt.