The real consequences of financial stress: Evidence from China

Abstract

This paper uses a multi-regime threshold vector autoregressive model to investigate the asymmetric and nonlinear impacts of financial stress on China’s real economy in high- and low-stress regimes. Special attention is paid to the reliability of the measures of financial stress and real activities in China. We find that the response of China’s real economy to a financial stress shock is bigger in high-stress regimes than in low-stress regimes. The negative response to a positive shock is bigger than the positive response to a negative shock. The response to a positive shock is disproportionately larger when the size of the shock increases, but a negative shock does not have this amplifying effect, indicating the danger of a severe financial crisis and the difficulty to revert its damage to China’s real economy