The Reagan Democrat Phenomenon: How Wise Was the Conventional Wisdom?

Abstract

This article examines vote defection by white Democrats in the presidential elections of 1980–1988 and reconsiders the foundations of the “Reagan Democrat” phenomenon. The conventional wisdom has been that the defection of Reagan Democrats was motivated by conservative policy preferences, especially on race and redistribution. National Election Study data from 1980–1988 are used to test a multivariate model of vote choice. In 1980 and 1984, Democratic defectors were much more influenced by performance assessments than by policy preferences. Contrary to the prevailing storyline, Reagan Democrats were not voting to endorse a conservative policy agenda, but were more generally punishing Jimmy Carter in 1980 for poor performance in office and rewarding Ronald Reagan in 1984 for a job well done. Racial policy was a more potent influence on defection in 1988.