The Rational Analytical Approach to Decision-Making: An Adequate Strategy for Military Commanders?

Abstract

Decision-making is the first step in implementing human will, and is therefore a prime human factor in warfare. Military education, training, and exercises are all focused on aspects of decision-making. British Military Doctrine (BMD) states that the “exercise of command is primarily concerned with the decision making process.” British Army doctrine emphasizes that it requires “good judgment and initiative” to know when a decision is needed. Most factors influencing decision-making are reflected in how military forces train and exercise. Time, stress, fatigue, information demand, information overload, noise, and sleep deprivation, to mention some, are part of the training scenario. Methods for managing decision-making under such conditions are regularly taught to military forces. Rational analytical decision-making, based on a comparison of quantitative options, is the preferred decision method, and is primarily done by what is known as the estimate process. Factors that are closely linked to the personality of the commander, like intuition and creativity, are generally emphasized in doctrine as being important. However, these aspects are rarely given any significance in the education, training, and exercise environment, as they are impossible to teach, but they are regarded as crucial in wartime, and are expected to materialize when they are most needed. Thorough training and drilling in analytical decision-making may leave the military officer sounding prepared to make excellent decisions, but is there judgment behind the language? New research has rediscovered old knowledge about the possibilities of the human mind. Individuals as well as organizations can benefit from this research. However, it might require a reevaluation in the area of decision-making, particularly regarding the almost total reliance on the rational analytical approach. The business world has started looking for other attributes in a leader than rational analytical skills. Expressions like “the articulate incompetent” have been used about a particular business type that is “full of good ideas immaculately presented, but that lack substance, and don’t work.” Henry Mintzberg has discussed corporate planning and the inadequacies of the rational and analytical process for the business world. “A good deal of corporate planning ... is like a ritual rain dance. It has no effect on the weather that follows, but those who engage in it think it does. ... Moreover, much of the advice