The rate of sea-level rise

Abstract

atesinterannualnatural variability in sea level from the longer-term change probably related to anthropogenic global warming. The most prominent signature in the global mean sea level interannual variability is caused by El Nino‐Southern Oscillation, through its impact on the global water cycle 13‐16 . We find that when correcting for interannual variability, the past decade’s slowdown of the global mean sea level disappears, leading to a similar rate of sea-levelrise(of3.3 0.4mmyr 1 )duringthefirstandsecond decade of the altimetry era. Our results confirm the need for quantifying and further removing from the climate records the short-term natural climate variability if one wants to extract the global warming signal 10 . Precisely estimating present-day sea-level rise caused by anthropogenic global warming is a major issue that allows assessment of the process-based models developed for projecting future sea level 1 . Sea-level rise is indeed one of the most threatening consequences of ongoing global warming, in particular for lowlying coastal areas that are expected to become more vulnerable to flooding and land loss. As these areas often have dense populations, important infrastructures and high-value agricultural and biodiverseland,significantimpactssuchasincreasinglycostlyflooding or loss of freshwater supply are expected, posing a risk to stability and security 17,18 . However, sea level also responds to natural climate variability, producing noise in the record that hampers detection of the global warming signal. Trends of the satellite altimetry-based global mean sea level (GMSL) are computed over two periods: the period 19942002