The Rapid Urban Growth Triad: A New Conceptual Framework for Examining the Urban Transition in Developing Countries

Kyle Farrell

doi:10.3390/su9081407

Abstract

Although the urban transition is a universal event that unfolds in all countries, the determinants, patterns, and outcomes do not necessarily follow a uniform process. With the urban transition being basically completed in developed countries around the turn of the 21st century, the growth of cities today is almost entirely confined to developing countries. Still, much of our conceptual understanding of this process is derived from earlier accounts, with definitions rooted in a historical context. This has resulted in common misconceptions such as a tendency to view the growth of cities primarily as an outcome of rural to urban migration, neglecting the growing contributions of urban natural population increase and reclassification of rural areas. A tendency to treat the components of urban growth in isolation has created a rift within the urban studies discourse, preventing any real theorization of their combined impacts and the interplay among them. Applying a systems thinking approach, this paper introduces a multidisciplinary framework for conceptualizing rapid urban growth in developing countries. The framework offers explanatory power to previously neglected components of urban growth and serves as a diagnostic for examining the urban transition—ultimately revealing new policy levers for managing it in a sustainable way.

Highlights

“Around the globe today city growth is disproportionate to urbanization
Acknowledging that the contributions made by previous urban studies literature have made significant strides, this paper has identified three vital shortfalls that prevent us from developing an integrated theory for understanding rapid urban growth in developing countries
Theories and policies that are commonplace in the development and urban studies discourses have been developed based on a historical understanding of the urban transition, failing to accurately capture the contemporary conditions of developing countries

Summary

Introduction

“Around the globe today city growth is disproportionate to urbanization. The discrepancy is paradoxical in the industrial nations and worse than paradoxical in the nonindustrial . . . It is in this respect that the nonindustrial nations, which still make up the great majority of nations, are far from repeating past history. The literature has fallen short of an integrated theory capable of explaining rapid urban growth in developing countries In light of this absence, much of our conceptual understanding of the urban transition today has been derived from the experiences of the industrial world, with definitions and ideas rooted in a historical context [16,18]. Examples of this outmoded thinking can be found in landmark reports, such as the World Bank’s Reshaping Economic Geography, which asserts, “today’s developing countries are sailing in waters charted by developed nations, which experienced a similar rush to towns and cities” [19]

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