Abstract
The ranges of species are shifting as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. In the marine realm biogeographic transition zones could form barriers to dispersal and inhibit range-shift, but little is known about this potential effect. The hermit crab Clibanarius erythropus appeared in the UK in 2016 with the nearest reproducing population being on the northern coast of Brittany. This raises questions of which conditions may have permitted C. erythropus to cross the English Channel (7.25°W, 49.00°N) and whether this barrier could be overcome by other intertidal species. Dispersal simulations suggest the larvae of C. erythropus arrived in 2014, originated from North Brittany, experienced a mean temperature of around 16 °C, and took longer than 20 days to be transported across the channel. The transportation of larvae from Brittany to the southwest UK appears to be rare and driven by occasional, unusual ocean currents. The English Channel may continue to prevent species with pelagic larvae that settle within 20 days, such as many species of gastropod, annelids, and macroalgae, from successfully range expanding to the UK. North Brittany was the only landmass from which it is feasible the UK population of C. erythropus could have originated. Therefore, species with long-lived pelagic larvae but without reproducing populations in North Brittany may not appear in the southwest UK until the species are established in North Brittany. The English Channel could continue to limit the ability of many intertidal species to shift their range with climate change.
Highlights
The ranges of many species are shifting towards the poles, as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change (Hawkins et al 2008; Thomas 2010)
Determining which species will be able to overcome the barrier of the English Channel, and why, will further our understanding of how the intertidal community of the United Kingdom (UK) will change over the coming decades, and build our understanding of the processes that drive or limit range expansions (Hiscock et al 2004; Keith et al 2011; Wilson et al 2016)
The number of particles arriving in the UK increased as the simulations progressed with the highest number of particles arriving on a single day occurring on the final day of each simulation
Summary
The ranges of many species are shifting towards the poles, as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change (Hawkins et al 2008; Thomas 2010). In the closely studied southwest United Kingdom (UK), the ranges of many intertidal species have increased northwards, while other species have become locally extinct in the southern edge of their range (Southward et al 1995; Helmuth et al 2006; Hawkins et al 2008, 2017). The lack of intertidal species range-shifting into the UK may occur, because the English Channel poses a major barrier to the expansion of species’ ranges from further south (Salomon and Breton 1993; Lefebvre et al 2003; Nicolle et al 2017). Determining which species will be able to overcome the barrier of the English Channel, and why, will further our understanding of how the intertidal community of the UK will change over the coming decades, and build our understanding of the processes that drive or limit range expansions (Hiscock et al 2004; Keith et al 2011; Wilson et al 2016)
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