Abstract
To develop a reliable and effective radiological score to assess the healing of isolated ulnar shaft fractures (IUSF), the Radiographic Union Score for Ulna fractures (RUSU). Initially, 20 patients with radiographs six weeks following a non-operatively managed ulnar shaft fracture were selected and scored by three blinded observers. After intraclass correlation (ICC) analysis, a second group of 54 patients with radiographs six weeks after injury (18 who developed a nonunion and 36 who united) were scored by the same observers. In the initial study, interobserver and intraobserver ICC were 0.89 and 0.93, respectively. In the validation study, the interobserver ICC was 0.85. The median score for patients who united was significantly higher than those who developed a nonunion (11 vs. 7, p < 0.001). A ROC curve demonstrated that a RUSU ≤ 8 had a sensitivity of 88.9% and specificity of 86.1% in identifying patients at risk of nonunion. Patients with a RUSU ≤ 8 (n = 21) were more likely to develop a nonunion (n = 16/21) than those with a RUSU ≥ 9 (n = 2/33; OR 49.6, 95% CI 8.6-284.7). Based on a PPV of 76%, if all patients with a RUSU ≤ 8 underwent fixation at 6 weeks, the number of procedures needed to avoid one nonunion would be 1.3. The RUSU shows good interobserver and intraobserver reliability and is effective in identifying patients at risk of nonunion six weeks after fracture. This tool requires external validation but may enhance the management of patients with isolated ulnar shaft fractures.
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