The race that stopped a nation: lessons from Australia’s Covid vaccine failures

Abstract

Abstract Australia handled many aspects of the Covid-19 pandemic very well. The international border was closed early, contract tracing regimes were implemented quickly, and targeted lockdowns helped keep case and death rates per capita to relatively low levels. Yet in mid-2021, Australia’s vaccine rollout was the slowest in the OECD. We estimate that an optimal vaccine rollout could have saved lives and averted at least A$31 billion in economic damage. The policy errors reflected a failure to heed basic economic concepts of portfolio diversification, option value, and dynamic optimization. We conclude with some policy lessons concerning pandemic preparedness for Australia and other countries.