Abstract
This paper establishes an integrated platform by coupling SWAT model and RegCM3 model which is used in the lancing-Mekong river. Based on the integrated platform, the author quantitatively studies the impact of the climate change and reservoir operation on the runoff of lower reaches of the Lancing-Mekong river in different scenarios. The results show that: In the next twenty years, both of climate change and reservoir operation will lead to a drop of the runoff. Of all the factors of Lancang-Mekong river runoff decrease, reservoir operation contributes to 12% and climate change 88%, so the major cause of the change of the runoff is climate change. In the impact factors of climate change, the contribution rate of temperature change accounts for 81% and precipitation change 19%. The author thinks that the most important influence factor of the lower reaches of the Lancang-Mekong river runoff is temperature change.
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