The Purpose and Pitfalls of Constructivist Forecasting: Insights from Strategic Culture Research for the European Union’s Evolution as a Military Power1

Abstract

The paper discusses the epistemological and normative problems arising for constructivists when attempting to forecast international events but argues that forecasting is both scientifically rewarding as well as normatively desirable. Constructivism has strengths in conceptualizing forecasting as a social activity that can shape the future itself but also weaknesses in formulating substantive mid-range theories and drawing on insights from other areas. The paper uses the debate about the European Union as an evolving military power to exemplify the normative as well as the epistemological potential of constructivist forecasting. It argues that insights from strategic culture research are particularly suited to outline trajectories of the likely when combined with the assessment of internal and external drivers of ideational and material change, the examination of discontinuities, and key uncertainties.