The “Punishment Lottery”: An Immodest Proposal for Maximizing Deterrence, Doing Justice, and Reducing Prison Overcrowding, All at Once

Abstract

This paper offers a new proposal for the sentencing of most convicted felons that promises simultaneously to promote general deterrence and to reduce prison overcrowding in a fair manner. Called the “punishment lottery,” I recommend subjecting convictees to a random system that imposes prison sentences that are usually shorter, but sometimes longer, than current sentences. Specific guidelines are suggested for enacting my proposal. I then offer empirical evidence and argumentation to support my claims that the punishment lottery can deter potential offenders, accomplish the retributive goal of fairness, and substantially reduce prison overcrowding, all at once.