Abstract
SummaryBackgroundnationally determined contributions (NDCs) serve to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement of staying “well below 2°C”, which could also yield substantial health co-benefits in the process. However, existing NDC commitments are inadequate to achieve this goal. Placing health as a key focus of the NDCs could present an opportunity to increase ambition and realise health co-benefits. We modelled scenarios to analyse the health co-benefits of NDCs for the year 2040 for nine representative countries (ie, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, the UK, and the USA) that were selected for their contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions and their global or regional influence.MethodsModelling the energy, food and agriculture, and transport sectors, and mortality related to risk factors of air pollution, diet, and physical activity, we analysed the health co-benefits of existing NDCs and related policies (ie, the current pathways scenario) for 2040 in nine countries around the world. We compared these health co-benefits with two alternative scenarios, one consistent with the goal of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (ie, the sustainable pathways scenario), and one in line with the sustainable pathways scenario, but also placing health as a central focus of the policies (ie, the health in all climate policies scenario).FindingsCompared with the current pathways scenario, the sustainable pathways scenario resulted in an annual reduction of 1·18 million air pollution-related deaths, 5·86 million diet-related deaths, and 1·15 million deaths due to physical inactivity, across the nine countries, by 2040. Adopting the more ambitious health in all climate policies scenario would result in a further reduction of 462 000 annual deaths attributable to air pollution, 572 000 annual deaths attributable to diet, and 943 000 annual deaths attributable to physical inactivity. These benefits were attributable to the mitigation of direct greenhouse gas emissions and the commensurate actions that reduce exposure to harmful pollutants, as well as improved diets and safe physical activity.InterpretationA greater consideration of health in the NDCs and climate change mitigation policies has the potential to yield considerable health benefits as well as achieve the “well below 2°C” commitment across a range of regional and economic contexts.FundingThis work was in part funded through an unrestricted grant from the Wellcome Trust (award number 209734/Z/17/Z) and supported by an Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council grant (grant number EP/R035288/1).
Highlights
Air pollution: using data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), pollutant emissions from different fossil fuels consumed by each sector were used to estimate the annual average particulate matter ambient air pollution concentrations using the Greenhouse gas—Air pollution Iteractions and Synergies (GAINS) system;[21] other non-fossil fuel pollutants were estimated on the basis of sector activities and related assumptions on the technology adopted and population wealth[22]
Greenhouse gas emissions: direct CO2 emissions from fossil fuels were estimated from the IEA fuel data and CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions were estimated from the precursor emissions based on the GAINS assumption for sectoral activities
Greenhouse gas emissions: CO2 emissions from fossil fuels were estimated from the IEA stated policies scenario (STEPS) data and CO2e emissions were estimated from the precursor emissions on the basis of the GAINS assumption for sectoral activities
Summary
To avoid the worst health effects of climate change, global annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must halve by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.1 This reduction cannot be achieved without strong and early GHG emis sion mitigation policies across every sector, from fossil fuel use, which, across sectors, contributes 73% of total global GHG emissions.[2]In the 2015 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Paris Agreement, 196 states com mitted to reducing global average temperature rise to “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels”.3 Alongside this target, countries announced nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which represent their sovereign efforts “to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change”.2 as they stood at the end of 2020, the NDCs were inadequate in their ambition, risking a global temperature rise of greater than 3°C by the end of this century.[4]In addition to preventing the worst effects of climate change, efforts to reduce GHG emissions yield substantial near-term health benefits.[5,6] Well designed mitigation policies across the energy, built environment, food and agriculture, and transport sectors could result in cleaner air, improved housing, increased physical activity, and healthier diets.[7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14] These health benefits often confer economic benefits in the form of reduced health-care costs and a more productive workforce, which, in many instances, can outweigh the initial cost of the policy.[15]. In the 2015 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Paris Agreement, 196 states com mitted to reducing global average temperature rise to “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels”.3. Alongside this target, countries announced nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which represent their sovereign efforts “to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change”.2. Countries announced nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which represent their sovereign efforts “to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change”.2 As they stood at the end of 2020, the NDCs were inadequate in their ambition, risking a global temperature rise of greater than 3°C by the end of this century.[4]. The Lancet Countdown[16] brings together more than 35 institutions from across the world to better understand the emerging health profile of a changing
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