Abstract

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. “Rosoboronexport reports Growing Global Sales, including Deliveries to Syria and Mali,” February 13, 2013, <http://newsru.com/russia/13feb2013/rosoboron.html>, last accessed June 15, 2013. 2. Ilgar Velizade, “Akhmadinezhad Leaving,” Nezavisimaya gazeta, January 30, 2013. 3. Sergey Strokan, “Iranian Atom Growing Stronger,” Kommersant, February 25, 2013. 4. Benjamin Netanyahu: “Only Military Threat can Stop Iran,” Euronews, March 5, 2013, <http://ru.euronews.com/2013/03/05/israel-sharpens-its-tone-towards-iran>, last accessed June 15, 2013. 5. The precise age of the members of the Saudi royal family is often unknown. In the 1930s and 1940s, when the sons of the founder of the dynasty, Abdul Aziz bin Saud, were born, nobody bothered to record the precise birth dates of his children by his numerous wives. 6. “Remarks by Vice-President Joe Biden to the Munich Security Conference,” The White House, Office of the Vice President, February 2, 2013, <http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/02/02/remarks-vice-president-joe-biden-munich-security-conference-hotel-bayeri>, last accessed June 15, 2013. 7. “New START Treaty Aggregate Numbers of Strategic Offensive Arms,” Fact Sheet, Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, US Department of State, November 30, 2012, <http://www.state.gov/t/avc/rls/201216.htm>, last accessed June 15, 2013. 8. The figures are from the Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces (http://www.russianforces.org) website. They seem entirely plausible; the real size of the Russian strategic arsenal may be slightly different, but all the conclusions still stand. 9. Federation of American Scientists, “Complete List of All U.S. Nuclear Weapons,” last changed 14 October 2006, <http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Weapons/Allbombs.html>, last accessed June 15, 2013. 10. Elena Chernenko and Ivan Safronov, “Delayed-action Disarmament,” Kommersant, February 16, 2013, <http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2127445?isSearch=True>, last accessed June 15, 2013. 11. In the United States, an international agreement can be implemented as a treaty or as an executive agreement. A treaty must be ratified by a two-thirds majority in the Senate. An executive agreement can be either congressional or presidential. The first is based on bills passed by Congress or on ratified international treaties, and must be ratified by a simple majority in the Congress. The second is signed by the president based on his constitutional prerogatives and does not require ratification. Nevertheless, the Congress can pass a bill instructing the president to submit an executive agreement for ratification. See: Boris Osminin, “Adoption and Implementation of International Agreements by States,” Moscow, 2006, p. 222–223. 12. Elena Chernenko, “A Missile Defense Breakthrough,” Kommersant, February 26, 2013, <http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2135295>, last accessed June 15, 2013. 13. “Lavrov Denies Exchange of Declarations on Missile Defense,” Lenta.ru, February 26, 2013, <http://www.lenta.ru/news/2013/02/26/lavrov/>, last accessed June 15, 2013. 14. “We are restructuring the SM-3 IIB program … The timeline for deploying this program had been delayed to at least 2022 due to cuts in congressional funding,” Missile Defense Announcement as Delivered by Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, The Pentagon, March 15, 2013, <http://www.defense.gov/Speeches/Speech.aspx?SpeechID=1759>, last accessed June 15, 2013. 15. Arms Control Association, “The European Phased Adaptive Approach at a Glance,” February 2013, <http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Phasedadaptiveapproach>, last accessed June 15, 2013. 16. According to independent U.S. experts, the SM-3 Block IIA interceptors can reach a velocity of 4.5km/sec at the end of the boost phase, whereas the previous SM-3 Block IB version could reach only km/sec. It is assumed—although there has been no official confirmation—that the SM-3 Block IIB interceptors will be able to accelerate to 5.0—5.5km/sec. See: Arms Control Association, “The European Phased Adaptive Approach at a Glance,” February 2013, <http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Phasedadaptiveapproach>, last accessed June 15, 2013. 17. Kirill Belyaninov and Elena Chernenko, “The United States Change Missile Defense Registration Address,” Kommersant, March 18, 2013, <http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2148848>, last accessed June 15, 2013. 18. Hans M. Kristensen, “Options for Reducing Nuclear Weapons Requirements,” FAS Strategic Security Blog, February 11, 2013, <http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2013/02/nukeoptions.php>, last accessed June 15, 2013. 19. “Ship me somewhere's east of Suez, where the best is like the worst, where there aren't no Ten Commandments an’ a man can raise a thirst”. “An’ the dawn comes up like thunder outer China 'crost the Bay.” Rudyard Kipling, “Mandalay,” 1892.

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