The prospects for decarbonisation in the context of reported resources and energy policy goals: The case of Poland

Abstract

The European Union climate and energy policy obliges Member States to abandon the consumption of fossil fuels. Poland remains one of the very few European countries where the importance of coal in the economy is still maintained through political decision. Yet it faces the challenge of energy transition that will inevitably lead to a reduction in domestic coal exploitation and, in consequence, mine closures. The steps in the decarbonisation roadmap should take into account both economic criteria (resources, profitability of mining) and social issues, due to the loss of a significant number of jobs in the mining sector. This paper aims to present the assumptions on the decommissioning of mines in the context of the resources reported and mining licences granted. Moreover, these decisions are assessed in relation to the announced goals of Energy Policy of Poland until 2040 (EPP document) in which steam coal demand is forecast for two cases (high and low) depending on the prices of CO2 emission allowances. The objective of the paper is to critically analyse the assumptions of this document in the context of the established schedule of mine decommissioning. The schedule was agreed with the social side in September 2020. The analysis shows that the conditions of that agreement will have to be renegotiated and the closing date of several mines will need to be brought forward. Oversupply of coal occurs both with the implementation of the case of high demand and of low demand for steam coal announced in the Energy Policy for Poland document.