Abstract
From scratch to current stage, China’s nuclear power technology has experienced rapid development, and now China has begun to export nuclear power technology. As a kind of highly efficient and clean energy source, nuclear energy is also a priority option to solve energy crisis, replace traditional fossil fuels and reduce air pollution. By analyzing the short-term and long-term development trend of nuclear power in China, the paper has reached the following conclusions: (1) Under the current situation of excess supply, due to high investment cost of first-kind reactors, the decline of utilization hours and the additional cost of ancillary service obligations, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of the third generation nuclear power will significantly increase, and the internal rate of return (IRR) will significantly fall. In the short term, market competitiveness of nuclear power will be a major problem, which affects investment enthusiasm. (2) With technology learning of third generation technology, the LCOE of nuclear power will be competitive with that of coal power in 2030. (3) The CO2 emissions reduction potential of nuclear power is greater than coal power with CCS and the avoided CO2 costs of nuclear power is much lower. Therefore, nuclear power is an important option for China’s long-term low-carbon energy system transition. The paper proposes to subsidize the technical learning costs of new technology through clean technology fund at the early commercialization stage. When designing power market rules, the technical characteristics of nuclear power should be fully considered to ensure efficient operation of nuclear power.
Highlights
Most of China’s electricity is produced from coal
It is noteworthy that the learning cost of pre-commercialization of nuclear power should be solved by public financial support, rather than higher benchmark price assumed by local governments where nuclear power plants (NPPs) are located in
Through the analysis of short-term and long-term development trend of China’s nuclear power, this paper finds that, in the current situation of excess power, due to high investment cost, the decrease of utilization hour and additional cost of ancillary service obligations, the generation cost of third generation nuclear power will be significantly higher, and economic return will fall below the benchmark level, which negatively affects the investment enthusiasm in nuclear power
Summary
Most of China’s electricity is produced from coal. Rapid growth in demand has given rise to power shortages frequently in China, and the reliance on fossil fuels has led to substantial greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and serious air pollution. Qu (2008) presented the objectives and missions of China’s medium- and long-term nuclear power development program and China’s achievements in technology localization, industry capability, efforts to catch up with world advanced level, and future outlook [13]. Kang et al (2012) introduced China’s medium- and long-term planning for nuclear and renewable energy, and discussed that the Fukushima accident changes the trajectory of nuclear power development and further affects the China’s strategic of energy structure adjustment [14]. The third contribution is to prove that the nuclear power is an important option for China’s long-term low-carbon energy system transition by comparing the avoided CO2 costs for nuclear power and coal power +CCS.
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