The promise of panarchy in managed retreat: converging psychological perspectives and complex adaptive systems theory

Abstract

This paper interrogates the nature of climate resilience by adopting “panarchy” as a heuristic model to visualize how small-scale processes such as individual environmental risk perceptions are interrelated with broader social and ecological systems to confer community resilience. Thematic analysis of resident interviews from a pilot study conducted in the Rockaways, New York revealed the foundations of environmental risk perceptions and the ways in which they are both a product of and catalyst for social-ecological system (SES) resilience. The debate around managed retreat necessitates a complex systems perspective to promote equitable and just adaptation and transformation while avoiding unintended consequences which often result from single-scale inquiry. Integrating risk perception in the explicit multi-scalar model of panarchy proposes a new way to think about the complex social, economic, political, and psychological processes converging across space and time to confer community resilience and visualize the complexity inherent in relocation. In other words, connecting climate resilience and managed retreat with psychological processes like risk perception emphasizes the importance of implementing multi-scalar interventions to build community adaptive capacity.